The Maryland Terrapins get their NCAA Tournament underway on Friday afternoon against Grand Canyon and find themselves in perhaps the toughest region in the bracket. The West Region features the most popular pick to win it all (Florida), a top-four offensive-efficiency team a dark-horse pick in Texas Tech, and a frenetic Missouri squad that can give any team fits. The region also features legendary coaches (Rick Pitino at St. John’s and Bill Self, Kansas) and the two-time defending national champions, UConn.
With all these potential landmines, the Terps will be grateful to have one of the top-seeded team fall to an underdog to make a deep tourney run for plausible. Here is the most realistic upset they could hope for.
Most Realistic Upset: No. 12 Colorado State Upsets No. 5 Memphis
Colorado State was on the bubble in the days leading up to Selection Sunday, but they took care of business in the Mountain West Tournament, taking down Boise State 69-56, and ending their prospective NCAA tourney hopes in the process.
The Rams rely heavily on senior guard Nique Clifford, who leads the team in scoring (19.0) rebounding (9.7), assists (4.4), and steals (1.2) per game. He’ll need to get support from guards Jalen Lake (11.1 ppg), Kyan Evans (team-high 46.4 3P%), and forward Jaylon Crocker-Johnson (9.0 ppg, 4.3 RPG, 39.1 3P%) to help pull off the upset.
Memphis (29-5, 16- AAC) comes into the tournament as the No. 5 seed in the regular season and tournament winners of the American Athletic Conference. They too, depend mightily on one player, P.J Haggerty, who leads the Tigers in scoring (21.8), assists (3.8), and steals (1.8) per game.
Penny Hardaway’s team also possesses a strong supportive cast around Haggerty, featuring Tyrese Hunter (13.7 PPG, 40.1 3P%), and Dain Dainja (14.4, 7.2 RPG, 1.3 BPG) who contribute to 12.5 “stocks” (steals + blocks) per game, compared to 7.9 for the Rams. Those potential extra possessions could make the difference for Memphis.