Predicting Seth Allen’s Future Production As A Maryland Terrapin

In our latest installment of predicting the production of various Terps in the future, I have decided to profile freshman guard Seth Allen. Allen was a very underrated guard coming out of high school and was Mark Turgeon’s first recruit after replacing legendary coach Gary Williams. Allen was a three-star recruit of Fredericksburg Christian School and didn’t have many offers from big-time programs. However, the Maryland coaching staff developed him into a solid player in his freshman campaign and will be a big asset for the Terps in the coming years.

The first thing that comes to mind when anybody sees Allen play is his lightning-like quickness. The Virginia native can drive the lane with the best of them and certainly can finish a play. He is also very aggressive and doesn’t back down from any defender, no matter what big the size mismatch may be. His quickness is also a major asset on the defensive end as he has the ability to jump in front of any pass and take it the other way. The Fredericksburg Christian School product also has a decent shot when he has a chance to take it. As many freshman are, Allen can be a little erratic when it comes to shooting the ball. At times, Allen takes ill-advised, contested shots and that comes with the territory.

When comparing Allen to similar guards around the ACC over the past few years, there are a few names that jump out in terms of production that is similar to or equal to Allen’s. I set the parameters of the search to players that were similar in height to Allen at 6-1 and of course just players that have played in the ACC. There was one former Terp that comes to mind when I see Allen play and that is Terrell Stoglin. Stoglin and Allen both played about 22 minutes-per-game during their freshman seasons but Stoglin averaged 3.6 more ppg and one more assist-per-game than Allen. However, the talent between the two is very similar. Both are lefties and Allen actually shot at a higher clip during his freshman season with the Terps.

But as much as Seth Allen is similar to Terrell Stoglin, one name came up that bared an even closer comparison. Allen’s statistics are eerily similar to that of sensational Miami sophomore guard Shane Larkin.  For some reason, Larkin didn’t even cross my mind when I ran Allen’s numbers through the database. But the numbers speak for themselves.

Seth Allen Yr. 1: 22.0 MP, 7.8 PPG, 38.9% FG, 73.9 % FT, 2.2 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.9 TOs

Terrell Stoglin Yr. 1: 21.5 MP, 11.4 PPG, 46% FG, 82.7% FT, 1.3 RPG, 3.3 APG, 0.8 SPG, 2.3 TOs

Shane Larkin Yr. 1: 25.6 MPG, 7.4 PPG, 36% FG, 85.7% FT, 2.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.6 SPG, 1.9 TOs

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First off, Stoglin may not be the greatest comparison. Allen started only seven games for the Terps this season while Stoglin started 11 in his rookie campaign. Stoglin was also a bigger piece on offense as he scored in double figures 18 times while Allen only managed to hit double figures in 13 games. Allen only topped 20 points once and Stoglin was able to reach that plateau on four occasions. Judging by these statistics, Stoglin was a more focal part of the offense and was better prepared for the world of college basketball. He was also forced to start a little more than Allen was. Through much of the 2012-2013 season, veteran guard Pe’Shon Howard started for the Terrapins so Allen wasn’t leaned on quite as heavily.

On the other hand, Shane Larkin seems to be a spot-on comparison to Seth Allen. Larkin was a relative unknown during his freshman season at Miami as I’m sure Allen is to anyone that isn’t a Maryland fan. Points-per-game and field goal percentage are both very similar with Allen holding a slight edge in both categories. As was the case with Larkin this past season, Allen can drill a shot from any spot on the court if given room to operate.

Many of the numbers are extraordinarily close but one statistic that jumped out at me was turnovers. Both Allen and Larkin turned the basketball over 1.9 times per game which is about par for the course as a freshman. As we watched the Terps throughout this past season, you could see the flashes of greatness when Seth Allen was on the floor. However, Allen was tremendously erratic at times. It was almost as though he was moving so fast that he seemed to play out of control. Larkin was very much the same and probably had a lot more room to grow from his freshman to sophomore year than Allen does.

So the next question becomes: can Seth Allen make as big of a jump as Shane Larkin did in his sophomore season?

I think the answer is yes. First of all, Larkin has played the past two years of his career with a chip on his shoulder. After originally committing to DePaul, the Orlando native was forced to withdraw from his commitment at the Chicago-based university due to an undisclosed illness. I tend to believe that Allen will also play with a bit of a chip on his shoulder. Allen wasn’t heavily recruited in high school and had mostly interest from schools much smaller than Maryland. Mark Turgeon had his eye on Allen since he was the coach at Texas A&M and probably was the main reason that Allen ended up in College Park.

Larkin nearly doubled many of his numbers in his sophomore campaign. The Hurricanes guard averaged 14.5 points-per-game, 4.6 assists-per-game, 3.8 rebounds-per-game, and 2.0 steals-per-game. He also shot at a remarkable 47.9 percent clip after only hitting 36 percent of his shots as a freshman. After watching quite a few Miami games this year, it was evident how much Larkin’s game has evolved from a season ago. He wasn’t tentative in the slightest and was absolutely fearless on the basketball court. Larkin really improved his shot as a whole, especially from beyond the three-point line. The son of former Cincinnati Reds shorstop Barry Larkin shot 40.6 from beyond the arc and seemed to attempt even more shots from downtown later in the season. Larkin also drove the basketball a lot more and converted his fair share of pretty reverse layups and circus shots.

With the expertise of a coaching staff such as Maryland’s, I think that it is definitely possible for Seth Allen to make a big jump in his sophomore season. Now Allen might not make quite the jump that Larkin did but I think a spike in numbers is definitely in the Woodbridge, Va. native’s future. As I noted earlier, Allen reached double figures in 13 games and that was with guards like Pe’Shon Howard and Logan Aronhalt receiving playing time in the backcourt as well. If Allen adds a little bit of muscle, he could be even more of a threat to drive the ball to the basket. That could make his game downright scary as he was a solid finisher this season, including the drive that upset Duke in the regular season. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Allen’s shooting percentage improve. If the lefty works on his shot and general decision-making, he will be even more of a force. He did force a good amount of shots and still managed to shoot at nearly 39 percent from the field. I think it’s a bit of stretch to transform into a Shane Larkin-type player in one season but I think Maryland will have a much more disciplined and strong basketball player in Allen.