Apr 6, 2013; Charlottesville, VA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Phillip Sims (14) runs with the ball during the spring game at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

My last post on weeks one through four is here, so I’ll continue with five through eight. This stretch is going to be very telling for the Terrapins. Two games against powerhouse opponents in Florida State and Clemson, but wedged in between those are two winnable games on the road. If Maryland can come out 2-2 during this stretch, you have to consider it a success. Then again, there’s a good chance they could easily go 0-4 here and virtually damn their season.

Week Five: Maryland at Florida State (11-2 last season)

Florida State is similar to West Virginia in that, if there were ever a year Maryland could beat Florida State, it’s 2013. The departure of first round quarterback E.J. Manuel, the NCAA’s all-time leading scorer in a kicker, and three first round talented defensive players means that the Seminoles are theoretically in a rebuilding year

Except that not all rebuildings are created equally. Rebuilding at Florida State is like getting a new paint job on a Ferrari; with or without the new coat, it’s still going to smoke your car off the line. “Your car” being a 90′s Honda CRX with a spotty service record. Florida State recruits better than most teams in the nation, and expecting them to be much worse than an eight or nine win team is unreasonable. So will one of those losses come against Maryland?

No.

1.) It’s an away game at Doak Campbell. Maryland has never won there before (though we got close in 2009 with a 29-26 loss.)

2.) It’s against Florida State: the Terps currently hold a 2-21 record against Florida State which is about right for most every team they play. The silver lining? The Terps have beaten them twice in the last nine years? I guess there’s that.

3.) Devonta Freeman. Devonta completely dismantled the Terrapins last year, rushing for 148 yards and two touchdowns in College Park. If he’s on the field, the Terrapins are going to have a real tough time stopping him.

In short, Maryland is going to lose in week five.

Week Six: Virginia (4-8 last season) at Maryland

Virginia is probably more than a little pissy about having dropped their homecoming game to the Terrapins last year. A quarterback switch from Phillip Sims to senior Michael Rocco midway through the game wasn’t enough to stave off Stefon Diggs and the Terps.

Speaking of that quarterback controversy, what is UVa without one? This year, it’s between Phillip Sims, the Alabama transfer who was supposed to be Matt Schaub reincarnate, sophomore David Watford, who plays more like a running back, and redshirt freshman Greyson Lambert, the highly touted recruit who received offers from Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson.

It doesn’t speak well for their passing game that Watford is the starter post-spring, but their running game will be fully loaded with Kevin Parks (129 yards last year against Maryland) taking most of the carries. Parks is a fantastic runner in open space, but he does need a mildly competent passing game to go with him. I’m not sure UVa has any clue who to hand the position to, since everyone has been unimpressive.

Their defense has upper classmen at virtually every position, and should be improved from last year’s squad that was essentially a regrouping year. Still, I think Maryland wins this one at home, because UVa doesn’t have much of a QB and their receivers aren’t good enough to completely alter games (though admittedly local WR Darius Jennings has some talent.) Terps win.

Week Seven: Maryland at Wake Forest (5-7 last season)

At this point with Wake Forest, whatever prediction you make involves slinging things against a wall and seeing what sticks. The Deacons were one of the most boring teams in college football last year, regardless of how good their stud receiver Michael Campanaro performed. Seven of their twelve games never got past 14 points scored, and their final three games they gave up 130 total points.

Now to be fair, those two statistics both apply to Maryland (we gave up 131 over the last three games), but the difference is that we started a freaking linebacker at quarterback; Wake Forest had a junior QB who threw 20 touchdowns the year prior. So when we try to gauge Wake, do we go by their recent trend of not being bowl eligible for three of the past four seasons? Or do we suggest that Jim Grobe is going to lead them to a bounce back year and get them to the golden years again?

The former is more likely, in my opinion. Their spring game was a clue into what to expect: they have now switched to a read-option offense, ran about five plays to poor execution, and scored three total points. Their offense is an absolute mess this year, and unless their defense (which should be pretty stout) provides herculean efforts every night, it’s going to be a bad season for Wake.

The Terps take this one, even if it’s on the road.

Week Eight: Clemson (11-2 last season) at Maryland

I’m no psychic, but I’m going to predict that right around week eight the luster of whatever performances Maryland football displayed until this point, will wear off. Clemson is a dangerous machine right now on offense, and that’s really all that matters.

They have two Heisman candidates in Tahj Boyd and Sammy Watkins, who are capable of dismantling defenses easier than I could take apart Legos as a kid. Even with the loss of Nuke (who has now taken to rubbing poop all over hotel rooms) and Andre Ellington at running back, they’re still going to score a ton of points with the depth of talent they have at every position. They also return every starter from an already good offensive line. Not good things for opponents.

Maryland won’t be able to hang with that, even though they can occasionally give Clemson trouble. At this point, the Terps are highly unlikely to win this game, barring some kind of Rocky vs Ivan Drago performance.

Feb 7, 2013; Blacksburg, VA, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies guard Erick Green (11) shoots the ball over Maryland Terrapins guard/forward Dez Wells (32) guard Nick Faust (5) and guard/forward Jake Layman (10) during the second half at Cassell Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

To get started with the weekend, let’s just go ahead and say it: yesterday’s gritty win at Virginia Tech was really big. It was not so much about the scoring margin, or the style of play, but the win itself marked a number of significant events. Let’s just go down the list of them.

1. The win marks only the second time in Mark Turgeon’s career as head coach at Maryland that the Terrapins have won consecutive ACC games.

   This one is pretty big. The Terrapins were winning games left and right to start the season, leading to the unrealistic expectation that the winning would be rampant during ACC play. In actuality, Maryland was playing cream puffs during out of conference play and faced unanticipated struggles when the ACC came. Winning two games in a row for only the second time in Turgeon’s career at Maryland (and at a time when getting into the Big Dance is in question), means that Maryland is doing something right.

2. It was Maryland’s second ACC road win in two years.

   Performance on the road is an incredibly important factor, and during Turge’s tenure at Maryland, road wins have been scant at best. The fact that Maryland finally got one against Tech, and very nearly won on the road at Florida State, might signal that the tides are changing. Their next road game is at Boston College on the 19th, but it doesn’t look as daunting as before knowing that Maryland can at least beat inferior opponents on the road.

3. Maryland has now beaten Virginia Tech three straight times dating back to last season.

   At least the Terrapins can say they are Hokie Killers. I know this Virginia Tech team is down and out, but Maryland definitely has the Hokies number. That is great for the confidence of a team; knowing that on the road or at home, you can still dominate a team helps gauge where a team is at. In this case, they’re definitively better than the bottom half of the ACC, and should not be lumped in with them. Against Virginia, they can see if they’re capable of being in the top three or four ACC teams.

4. Jake Layman is now averaging 12.3 points over six games as a starter.

   This one is perhaps the biggest point. Jake Layman scoring 12.3 points as a starter means that the Terrapins definitively have another starter they can rely on for scoring in stretches. Layman has essentially secured his spot in the starting rotation now, and that should signal more confident play and at least some defined roles for the Terrapins. The fact that the defense played as well as ever, means that there wasn’t much of a drop off in quality of play. Layman is going to get even better knowing that he doesn’t have to worry about minutes, and perhaps he can play good offensive basketball for more than just 22 minutes a game (all his points came during that time span).

——————- A few thoughts on Virginia

Maryland plays Virginia on Sunday in what will be arguably their biggest test at home this season. Knowing that North Carolina State falls into the “pretender” column secures that notion. The Cavaliers are no cake-walk indeed, and they will be just as tough to beat as Duke (or anyone else, for that matter).

Currently, Virginia is 6-3 in the ACC, with all their losses coming on the road against inferior opponents (Clemson, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech). Much to the advantage of Maryland, their play on the road is suspect at best. At home during ACC play, they average almost 64 points per game. On the road in the ACC? 57. Their play typically suffers on the road, which actually makes them a lot like Maryland.

What makes them even more like the Terrapins is that no matter the opponent, they almost always come to play. The Cavaliers have two very talented players in Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell who handle most of their scoring, but Jontel Evans aka Pe’Shon Howard aka completely offensively inept, is the guy who gets them the ball. If he is passing to open shooters and getting the offense good looks, the Cavaliers are scary good.

We’ll have more information on the Cavaliers when the preview goes up tomorrow, but that’s a little about them to prep you for the weekend. In the meantime, roll Terps