Nov 24 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Florida International Golden Panthers wide receiver Wayne Times (5) runs the ball against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks in overtime at FIU Stadium. The Warhawks defeated FIU 23-17. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re into gambling, BetOnline.com released the entire slate of week one college football point spreads, and if you’re into Maryland, you’re going to love it.

The Terrapins are a 14.5 point favorite over Week One opponent Florida International University, which is a welcome thing to see considering last year the Terps were a 14.5 favorite over an FCS School (William & Mary). I think Vegas truly believes the Terps are better, and one thing is for certain, you don’t win when you bet against Vegas.

FIU travels to College Park for the fist time since 2010, when the Terps beat them handily, 42-28 with Danny O’Brien slinging balls to Torrey Smith. The Golden Panthers were one of the worst teams in the country last year, finishing 3-9 and dropping games against teams like Troy and Arkansas…State.

For Maryland to be given two touchdowns against a team like that is more a formality than anything else. The Terps have way more firepower than FIU, and should automatically have a two score advantage. Still, the spread doesn’t illicit a ton of confidence about the team from the bookies, and understandably so since during the Edsall regime there have been let-downs. With a strong preseason and as the season inches a bit closer, I fully expect that spread to widen a bit. Until then, place your bets now!

September 22, 2012; Morgantown, WV, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Randy Edsall gestures on the sidelines against the West Virginia Mountaineers during the fourth quarter at Milan Puskar Stadium. The West Virginia Mountaineers won 31-21. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a well known fact around Byrd Stadium that head coach Randy “Rangoon” Edsall doesn’t call the plays on offense; he ceded that over to offensive coordinator Mike Locksley long ago. And yet, Edsall still dons a military-grade headset and mic when he’s roaming the sidelines on Saturday afternoons, giving off the appearance that he’s either directing FA-18′s mid-flight or barking orders to his minions. I decided to ask him why.

“Heck yeah the headset plays a role,” Edsall said during our phone interview. “What you don’t see is the AUX cable that’s plugged into my iPod. That’s because I usually tuck the iPod in my orthos, then run the cable under my skivvies so no one notices and I don’t trip over it. I learned that lesson the hard way when I got all tangled up during [the 2011 Fiesta Bowl] and gave myself a mild concussion. We got blown out and I ended up coming to Maryland afterwards. Lesson learned, as they say.”

But fear not, Randy is adamant that his continuous groove session during games plays no factor in his decision making on the gridiron. Instead, he thinks it actually helps more than anything else.

“I went to a Phil Jackson seminar right after he wrote his book on that whole Kobe-Shaquille feud,” Edall explained. “I missed most of it raiding the buffet line, but he talked about how ‘in the zone’ he was on game days. How he would use some Eastern meditation mumbo-jumbo before games, I don’t know I tuned him out. But later, I figured I’d one-up him, and since my iPod gets me in the zone more than anything else, I plug that sumbitch in during games now.

“You ever heard Creed, live cuts only, on full volume? Talk about getting caught in that rapture.”

Of course, it’s not all about listening to live tracks of 90′s alt-rock bands. Randy admitted that sometimes he’d “interject into the convo with a play call, but always for the the long ball. Chicks dig the long ball.”

Maybe that’s what Edsall is, the Zen Master of Byrd Stadium. Meticulously analyzing the game live, using music as his muse to success.

“Plus,” Randy joked, “the headset makes you look bad to the bone.”

I asked Randy to look up his top ten, most played songs on his iPod, so the fans could get a glimpse into the genius:

1.) Hulk Hogan Theme – I Am A Real American (“Me and Perry [Hills] used to wrestle to this one.”)

2.) Creed – Higher

3.) Creed – Higher (“Acoustic Live at Burning Man; got some embarrassing pics from that one.”)

4.) Van Halen – Hot For Teacher

5.) Europe – The Final Countdown

6.) Eddie Vedder – Big Hot Sun (“I loved Call of the Wild! I wanna try that someday”)

7.) Chingy – Holiday Inn

8.) Creed – My Sacrifice (“I leave it all out there on the field, including points.”)

9.) Miley Cyrus/Randy Travis – Party In The USA/Achy Breaky Heart Mashup (“Merica.”)

10.) Chief Keef – Love Sosa

———-

It’s always nice to get into the mind of Dandy Randy on gamedays, and this gives us a good glimpse of it.

November 3, 2012; College Park, MD, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Randy Edsall prior to the game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Byrd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

2013 Maryland Terrapins Schedule

Date	Opponent / Event	Location	Time / Result
08/31/13	vs. Florida International	College Park, Md.	TBA
09/07/13	vs. Old Dominion	College Park, Md.	TBA
09/14/13	at Connecticut	East Hartford, Conn.	TBA
09/21/13	vs. West Virginia	Baltimore, Md. (M&T Bank Stadium)	TBA
10/05/13	at Florida State *	Tallahassee, Fla.	TBA
10/12/13	vs. Virginia *	College Park, Md.	TBA
10/19/13	at Wake Forest *	Winston-Salem, N.C.	TBA
10/26/13	vs. Clemson *	College Park, Md.	TBA
11/09/13	vs. Syracuse *	College Park, Md.	TBA
11/16/13	at Virginia Tech *	Blacksburg, Va.	TBA
11/23/13	vs. Boston College *	College Park, Md.	TBA
11/30/13	at North Carolina State *	Raleigh, N.C.	TBA

It’s that time of year where we get to have fun prognosticating on the things that matter most to us but don’t happen for another few months, like Maryland football. How many games will they win this year? How many will they lose? Will we finally go freaking bowling for the first time of the Edsall era? Can we finally right the ship?

After mustering up only six measly wins over the past two seasons, the Edsall regime has one last shot at the ACC crown before beginning yet another new era in the Big Ten. With a healthy C.J. Brown likely to start at quarterback (heck a healthy anyone to start at quarterback), the Terrapins are poised to be a much better team than last year. Being able to score more than 14 points a game feels foreign to even say considering how last year went, but it’s safe to say the offense will be better than that.

The defense lost some key contributors in Kenny Tate, A.J. Francis, Darin Drakeford, Joe Vellano, and Demetrius Hartsfield, forcing them to make up a lot of ground. Still, if there’s one thing that the Terrapins typically do somewhat effectively, it’s play sound defense. Maryland is notorious for being a plug-and-play school, and our coaching staff is good enough that they can make the most of the talent they have at every position.

Still, you play the schedule you’re given. Has it been kind to the Terrapins this year? I’d think yes.

Week One: Florida International (3-9 in 2012) at Maryland

The Florida International Golden Panthers went 3-9 last year, so logically this is viewed as a “primer” game for the Terrapins (sort of like that William & Mary game last season, when Perry Hills was the starter….) Most teams can look at this as a pushover game, but doing that for the Terps usually means upset city. Still, I don’t think there’s any way Maryland loses this rematch game of 2010′s 42-28 victory, back when Danny O’Brien and Do’rell Scott had the reigns.

Florida International is terrible, and almost always at the bottom rung of the Sun Belt. Expect a W.

Week 2 Old Dominion (11-2 in 2012) at Maryland

File this one under “Games the Terps Should Avoid Every Year.” Time and again Maryland schedules pre-conference play opponents that are going to give them serious work. Maryland needs to play the easiest schedule possible before heading into ACC play, but they’re not doing that with ODU coming to town.

For those of you that don’t know, ODU is a two-loss CAA outfit that knows how to put points on the board in a variety of ways. They actually just left the CAA for C-USA, but expect them to fit right in in a conference bereft of defense. ODU is going to be anything but a joke, and Maryland has a chance to lose this game. Last year, whereas Maryland scored seven points against William & Mary, ODU dropped 38 on them.

In fairness, they don’t play anyone tough so their standings aren’t indicative of actual talent, but rest assured these guys will be tough. Still, the experience factor is going to come into play here, and the Terrapins will win.

Week 3: Maryland at Connecticut (5-7 in 2012)

The Edsall Bowl Part II happens in week three, except the venue has switched from College Park to Rentschler Field. This game is probably going to be just as intense as the first one, if not moreso. I distinctly remember College Park being littered with Connecticut fans when the Terrapins played them at home, so I can only imagine the stadium will be packed when the Terps roll into town.

Still, not to be Optimistic Oscar or anything, but I don’t think there’s any way Maryland loses this game. The Terps lost by three points last year after mustering up only 205 total yards of offense (Perry Hills accounted for half of that through the air). That Connecticut team isn’t any better than the five-win squad they had last year, but the Terps are definitely going to be better. Their quarterback, Chandler Whitmer (who finished with 9 touchdowns to 16 interceptions last year), doesn’t scare me in the slightest. Without solid QB play, their speedster running back Lyle McCombs isn’t going to be able to get going and it’ll make Maryland’s life a lot easier.

I think the Terps get a win here, and while it’ll be gritty, it’s still going to be a W.

Week 4: West Virginia at Maryland

The Battle at M&T Bank, one of the oldest rivalries the Terrapins have to their name, whatever you want to call it, this one is big. If we’re going off my previous three win prediction, this would be a huge fourth victory against a bitter rival in West Virginia that the Terps haven’t beaten in awhile. The good news is that West Virginia is depleted offensively after losing QB1 in Geno Hayes, and WR 1, 2, and 3 in Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, and J.D. Woods. Those are some massive losses to have to make up for, and one that I have a feeling they won’t recover from.

If the Terps can’t beat West Virginia now, then I fear that it may never happen. The stars are aligning pretty well to come out with a victory here, provided the Terps offense is as explosive as we expect. West Virginia gave up 38 points per game last year, and even last year the Terps gave them a scare. I don’t think it’s farfetched to assume that Randy Edsall might give the Terps their first win in almost a decade against West Virginia (the last one coming in the 2004 Gator Bowl.)

——-

Week’s 5-8 coming up next…

Mar 16, 2013; Greensboro, NC, USA; Maryland Terrapins guard Seth Allen (4) shoots as North Carolina Tar Heels guard Marcus Paige (5) defends in the first half during the semifinals of the ACC tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

It’s transfer season for college basketball, and nowadays that basically means fans and coaches alike attack the subject with as much fervor as signing day and recruiting. Naturally, when news broke earlier this week that the Maryland terrapins lost out on two big name transfers, Eli Carter of Rutgers and Vertrail Vaughn of George Mason, people started to panic a little about not landing a transfer.

If we don’t get a veteran point guard now, or another scorer, are we destined for another NIT birth? Incoming freshmen Damonte Dodd and Roddy Peters (even transfer Evan Smotrycz) won’t be enough to get us over the hump and into the NCAA tournament. Mark Turgeon isn’t doing enough to lure these guys. If Antonio Barton doesn’t come, we’re screwed. Seth Allen and Roddy Peters are combo guards, and Nick Faust manning the point was somewhat disastrous last year; the turnover issue will persist. That was more or less the prevailing sentiment, but that’s standard protocol when fans get bad news.

Still, I have more than a little reason to believe that the gloom-and-doom speak is more than a little premature. The turnover problem was and remains a major issue plaguing this team, so the line of logic that with the same personnel the same outcome will occur is relatively sound. Seth Allen average 1.2 assists for every turnover he committed, and that number dropped to 0.8 during ACC play. That’s simply nowhere near proficient enough for a starting point guard on a tournament team, and I’ll readily accept that.

I’ll also concede, and even encourage, the line of thought that adding another freshman combo guard in Roddy Peters is going to solve next to nothing and he isn’t the savior people want him to be. True freshman point guards, let alone players that aren’t actually natural primary ball handlers, almost never fare well in the ACC during year one; the exception being one-and-done guards like Kyrie Irving, who come in and summarily destroy anyone standing in their way. Do I think Roddy Peters is going to be that type of player? Hell no. He isn’t even close, actually.

What I don’t understand is why everyone is so quick to dismiss the factor that experience plays in making things get better. Seth Allen played very nearly a full season against some really, really, tough opponents. For a three-star guard being given the reins of a young team, he obviously struggled a bit. But to say that he didn’t improve as the season progressed is a downright farce.

For that I point to his 24 of his final 25 games before he got injured. I cut the number to 24 to exclude his eight turnover performance against Duke (even though he was an integral piece to that victory). Over that 24 game stretch, Seth Allen averaged a mere 1.2 turnovers a game. The number drops to just one turnover a game if I take out his other four turnover performance. What does that tell me? It says that even though Seth Allen left a sour taste in every observers mouth with his. at times, painfully inaccurate passing early in the season, he was actually pretty good as a freshman.

1.2 turnovers a game over a 24 game stretch is an incredibly acceptable number for a freshman guard who is playing out of position in one of the toughest conferences in the country; I defy anyone to tell me otherwise in that matter. I ran his assist numbers over that 24 game stretch as well, and he averaged 1.7 assists over that same stretch. Note that I’ve never once suggested Allen was a pure point guard, or that he was even a great guard. I’m just trying to dispel the notion that he’s a turnover machine and we can write him off now.

Then of course there’s Roddy Peters coming in. I’m not going to sell Peters short at all with his game; from what I’ve seen, he’s a better player than Seth Allen already. As a top-end four-star guard, Peters is on the cusp of being a great player, but with a year off recovering from injury it’s going to be incredibly hard to gauge his production. Given that it’s guesswork at this point, let’s just speculate that he’s completely healthy come season time.

If Peters is at where he was at the start of his senior year, he’s a definite impact player coming into College Park. He is a competent shooter, and has the size to be a very effective defender as well. Even super scouter Dave Telep said earlier this year that he hadn’t seen a player evolve so quickly, and that he was already an elite point guard. If that’s the type of endorsement this kid is getting, I’ll take it. Roddy Peters is going to have turnover issues, but that doesn’t mean he is going to be a slouch when it comes to ball distribution.

That’s a major reason that I think things will be alright if the backcourt remains only Faust, Allen, and Roddy. Nick Faust will be able to play off the ball (where he excels) while Roddy is on the court, because Peters is more than likely going to be an effective passer. When Allen steps onto the floor, Maryland is probably going to have to run a lot more iso, but Nick Faust and Dez Wells are both pretty good at that, too. You add in an improved Layman and sharpshooter Evan Smotrycz around the perimeter to catch kick-out passes from those three slashers? I think that’s going to resolve a lot more problems than it’s going to cause. The three ball tends to cure a lot of things, and Maryland is going to be far more effective next year in that regard, I’d think.

They do lose Len, but the guy who will be replacing him in Charles Mitchell almost negates the necessity for tougher entry passes (an aspect the Terps struggled mightily in) that the big Ukrainian required to be effective offensively. Mitchell mostly creates his own points through an unheard of tenacity on the offensive glass, which is a very good thing. It’s going to really help lower the chances of a turnover being caused by our guards feeding it down low. If you can’t solve the problem, eliminate it outright.

The bottom line is that without Len, the guards that we have can specialize more on kick-outs to (hopefully) an improved deep shooting group. The entire dynamic of the team is going to look different without him. I think having a lot of guards who can slash and kick the ball out is more important than ever, and we’ll be getting that in Faust, Allen, and Peters. Two of those three I have reason to believe haven’t yet reached their ceilings and will stand to improve themselves after a year of seasoning. Basically, I like where the team is at, transfer or no transfer.

Mike Locksley, as a head coach.
Mandatory Credit: Beth Hall-USA TODAY Sports

• Maryland has been sending out basketball offers to Team Takeover players left and right lately, and for good reason. They are absolutely loaded with local talent, and it doesn’t hurt to send out feelers before other teams get the chance to discover the talent they have on that team. Still, it’s an AAU team, and as such they have to try to shed the label of being “dirty.” Dave Fairbank gives you a glimpse of what Team Takeover is all about, and it’s pretty great.
• Perhaps the biggest headline of the day (outside of Tim Tebow being released) is something that has far-reaching effects in professional sports. Jason Collins, NBA journeyman, came out Monday morning as a homosexual. On the surface it has nothing to do with the Terps, and yet it definitely does because this opens the door for more athletes to come out. The statistics don’t lie, there are plenty of gay athletes; some of them are probably playing sports at the University of Maryland, too.
• The ACC riding high after a few recent victories that have essentially halted conference realignment for the time being. So much so that John Swofford is considering playing football and basketball games over in Europe. I’m not sure how much intrigue this would bring, but I’ll be the first to admit that I’m slightly disappointed happy Maryland won’t get the chance to be rejected for the opportunity to play overseas by an NC-centric ACC.
• Pay to play article, but the Maryland Terrapins have been seeking out the services of a new 2014 forward. Even though the Terps already have their eyes on a number of big men (along with some already on the roster), this isn’t a bad thing to try and acquire a fast-riser like Terry Larrier.
• Dion Wiley and a number of recruits on Team Takeover have done some fantastic things on the basketball court, and you can find out how they’re doing here. As it stands, Team Takeover is a perfect 7-0 this summer, and doesn’t look like they’re going to lose for awhile. Still, there’s another prospect in Kai Locksley, who is also turning some heads on the Baltimore Elite.

So the Maryland Terrapins picked up a pretty big recruit yesterday when 2014 QB prospect William Ulmer of local St. John’s committed to the team. Most recruitniks have a hard time pegging exactly where Ulmer ranks, with 247 rating him the #3 dual-threat QB (203 overall), Rivals giving him a lofty  #10 overall at his position, and Scout throwing him the three-star ranking. The general consensus about Ulmer that you get is anything but confusing, though: as my grandpa would put it, “He’s the cat’s meow.”

Ulmer said no thanks to a host of other programs with unquestionably better recent history than the Terrapins, including Michigan State, Florida State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and even West Virginia. That’s just the short list, because the actual number of offers he received is far more long and distinguished. As TestudoTimes’ Pete Volk put it earlier, the Terps “managed to stick it to both their current and future conference rivals simultaneously.” That in and of itself feels great, since the ACC is doing Maryland no favors during our swan song season, so we might as well win when we can.

As an example of how good Ulmer really is, you can just look at the fantastic numbers he put up last season at St. John’s: 1,245 yards passing and 1,412 rushing with 25 total touchdowns. Those numbers speak to ability when you consider that he did it on an overmatched team in the WCAC, which features the #9 team in the country in Good Counsel, along with powerhouses DeMatha and Gonzaga. Ulmer wasn’t going against slouches; he was playing against future Division I athletes.

That Division I athlete thing is probably what most stands out about Will Ulmer’s game, too. If you even take a glance at his highlight reel below, I can assure you you’ll watch the entirety of it because he’s so electrifying on the field. A QB who runs a 4.4 40-yard dash, has the elusiveness of a running back, and can competently throw the ball with a good degree of accuracy is very hard to find, and Ulmer has all of that (think: Stefon Diggs at quarterback). Ulmer may not have an absolute gun, but he can read defenses pretty well for a junior option quarterback, and there’s always room for growth.

Ulmer runs directly at defenders and they often still miss regardless of how well they are positioned for a tackle. He also excels at end around plays, making him a pretty darn good fit for Mike Locksley’s offense. His athleticism makes you think that even if things don’t work out at quarterback for him, at the very least Ulmer can play a number of other positions on the football field. Assuming he can catch the ball, he’d make a pretty dangerous receiving threat considering his speed and ability to create space.

But that’s just speculation, because as it stands Ulmer should thrive in the competitive quarterback environment Maryland has quietly developed on their roster. With C.J. Brown and Ricardo Young available for two more years, Caleb Rowe and Perry Hills on the staff for another three, and Shane Cockerille (Maryland’s top 2013 QB prospect) probably looking at five years in a Terps jersey assuming he redshirts, it’s a crowded, hungry position. Maryland is more than likely not going to have to worry about depth at that position for years to come, and that’s got to please fans,

Will Ulmer is also a pretty symbolic victory, because his commitment continues the trend of the Terrapins program building a strong connection with local schools and their best players. For years, Maryland had been unable to tap the talent-rich DMV area, but Edsall and Locksley appear to be bucking that trend. Some are speculating that his signing could create a “domino effect” of sorts, allowing the Terps to sign even more elite talent in the area (*cough* Jalen Tabor *cough*).

I’m not going to go that far, because I’d rather just relish this victory. The Terrapins picked up a guy that more than a few people didn’t think they would get, and that’s a big enough change for me to be more than pleased with the staff. Ulmer is a phenomenal talent to have at Maryland, and he might be the best QB prospect the Terps have gotten since, ugh, Jordan Steffy. He’s going to help us compete in the Big Ten in a few years, and that’s all you can ask for.

Roll Terps

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5igXfTku4uw&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Sep 08, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Perry Hills (11) hands off to running back Wes Brown (4) during the fourth quarter against the Temple Owls at Lincoln Financial Field. Maryland defeated Temple 36-27. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

The Maryland Terrapins released their post-spring game depth chart yesterday, and there really weren’t a whole lot of surprises involved in the entire thing. We already knew who the starting quarterback would be since Edsall announced that a few weeks ago, but I still have a few thoughts on other matters and positions. The depth chart brought up a few interesting things:

1.) Randy Edsall has a lot of faith in C.J. Brown, and not much in any other quarterback

To see C.J. Brown get the nod as starter wasn’t surprising, since Edsall has reiterated time and again that you don’t lose your job due to injury. Brown is almost certainly going to be the day one starter, and that’s both good and bad by my estimation. It’s good because not having a quarterback controversy is good for a team’s stability. After last season’s injury debacle at the position, nothing pleases me more than knowing who the Terrapins are going with as QB1.

It’s also good because it at least gives me a varying degree of certainty that C.J. Brown has regained most of his health and athleticism. Sometimes running quarterbacks take a little while to get a little more cocksure of their abilities once again after a knee injury. C.J. Brown will have his confidence sooner rather than later knowing that he doesn’t have a quarterback breathing down his neck.

It make me wonder a little about what else the Terrapins have at quarterback, though. A perfectly healthy Ricardo Young, who was once considered a big stud transfer, couldn’t do enough to beat out three guys coming off major injury (Brown, Hills, and Rowe)? We already know what Perry Hills offers, and if Ricardo Young isn’t considered much better than him I lose a bit of confidence in the Terps to overcome another injury spree. I know that’s pessimistic and premature, and I’m not saying I don’t have faith in the quarterback’s to stay healthy. I’m saying what if C.J. Brown, who has been injured far more often than not, gets hurt again? The QB crop doesn’t elicit much enthusiasm.

2.) What’s up with Marcus Leak?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Randy Edsall say that players don’t lose their jobs because of injury? If that’s the case, what happened to Marcus Leak, who is now deep in a ditch behind a bunch of other receivers? Stefon Diggs makes sense considering he’s one of the best receivers in the nation, as does Deon Long given the things he did at the JUCO level. But (and this is no slight at the player) Nigel King, Malcolm Culmer, and Amba Etta getting the nod over  Leak is surprising.

Leak was injured, but last I checked he was on pace to be ready for the season’s start. It’s concerning because, for one, maybe he isn’t as healthy as we initially thought. Leak had surgery on his toe back in late October, and that kind of injury doesn’t typically take a full year to recover from. Nigel King wasn’t nearly as effective as Leak during his time on the field, and it would seem like Leak would fit in just as well with the offense. So why isn’t he WR3?

Maybe it’s because our depth chart is so chock full of talent at the receiver position that it won’t matter, but then maybe it isn’t. Leak seemed poised for a very big year last year, and he appeared to be poised for just as big a year once healthy. With a couple of 90 yard games and a pair of touchdowns, I figured he’d be right in line for a very good role in the offense. Perhaps I’ll have to revise that.

3.) The running back stable is as solid as ever

This one most Terps fans know already. I’m extremely excited about the running game (which was putrid last year) after seeing how hard Brandon ross hit the hole during the spring game. He and Wes Brown are slotted as the top two backs, which gives the Terrapins a pair of bruisers who run incredibly hard to help out the passing game. It also slots Albert Reid as the third back, and considering how much more confident he looked in his last outing, if Wes Brown isn’t healthy he should be able to slide right in and be effective.

The offense looks poised to do some fantastic things, and it’s contingent on that running game being as good as expected.

May 25, 2012; Stony Brook NY, USA; Maryland Terrapins midfielder Kelly McPartland. Check that pocket depth, young lady.

• The Maryland Terrapins women’s lacrosse team needs to get a bit more love for what they’re doing for the school. That is to say, they’re completely assaulting the ACC with a perfect 16-0 record. And they’ve got a chance to do something really special come Saturday in Virginia Tech. Quite a bit of momentum heading into the ACC/NCAA tournament. Just look at senior Alex Aust’ stat line — videogame-esque.
• In more Terps lax news, the men’s team has a pretty tough battle themselves this weekend against a pack of geniuses in Yale. While the Terps are considered favorites, Yale is hardly a slouch at #15 in the country. They’re probably right around Hopkins skill level, and as most already know, we dropped a game to Hopkins.
• Self-pub, the Terrapins are going to host Oregon State next year in basketball. While that’s not really news considering the Beavers were pretty bad last year, it’s the offseason and it may end up being more meaningful later on. Particularly because everyone and their mother is going to be pulling for Barack Obama to show up, given his dubious connections with the Beaver’s head coach.
• There are some pretty crazy events happening in Massachusetts right now, and it’s bound to spurn some type of legislation to prevent something like this happening again. Sports initially played a part in this tragedy that will eventually spark legislation, and as is often the case, it has in the past as well. See: Len Bias
• ACCSports.com published a list of 2014 ACC football commitments earlier. There’s something missing from the list, can you guess what that is?
• It’s always nice to look back from a year ago and see what predictions were made about the Terrapins football team. BleacherReport.com decided to take a stab at the depth chart for the Terps, and here are the results. (Hint: it’s not entirely wrong)

Mar 14, 2013; Greensboro, NC, USA; Maryland Terrapins cheerleader performs in the first half at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

• Categorize this one under “Cool.” Yesterday, the Maryland Terrapins honored Lefty Driesell for his dedication and contributions to the school with a bas-relief inside the Comcast Center. A single bas-relief doesn’t even do that man’s eight NCAA tourney appearances and 348 wins justice. You know those bird statues they have all around campus? Replace those with Lefty statues, the man’s earned it. (UMTerps.com)
• The Terrapins baseball team is in serious danger of not making the tournament, and that’s due in large part to their lack of success on the weekends. This weekend, they’ve got the Virginia Tech Hokies, and in order to start righting the ship, it has to start with them. Here’s a preview of when and where to get you prepped.
• Speaking of non-revenue sports, the Washington Post does a great job of wrapping up all their content for the week. In this edition, they talk about baseball standout Charlie White, whose base running this year has landed him in the record books. A bright star in a tougher season, congrats Charlie!
• An in-house promotion, Steven Ulrich of TerrapinStationMD gives his take on why Antonio Barton would be a great fit for Maryland. He’s a Baltimore kid, and as we all know, Baltimore is never on good terms with College Park. But it still means he has homegrown roots, and might want to take a reunion tour with the Terps.
• The Terrapins have an early glimpse already at a part of their schedule, the Paradise Jam, which released their bracket to the public. Up first? Marist, which features two local Md. products. A win/loss there would pit them against either Northern Iowa or Loyola Marymount. Both games should be interesting as hell.
• In slightly sports-related news, Maryland has yet again made DeadSpin.com headlines. This time because of their amazing sorority sisters who have, let’s just say, a lot of pent up aggression. Read the transcript here.

Mar 16, 2013; Greensboro, NC, USA; Maryland Terrapins guard/forward Dez Wells (32) goes to the basket against North Carolina Tar Heels guard/forward Reggie Bullock (35) during the semifinals of the ACC tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Continuing our projecting the future series, wherein we use raw data to glimpse into what a player’s future holds, we move onto Dez Wells. Wells is the Terrapins offensive linchpin, capable of scoring outbursts that change the tides of games. Last season, Wells showed flashes of being an absolute superstar on the court with his gravity-defying dunks and end-to-end scoring plays. His athleticism is second to none on a basketball court, and yet his playmaking ability is on the higher end of wing players.

Wells still struggled with consistency issues; one game he would have 23 points, and yet in another a mere nine. Despite contributing in other manners, Wells failed to continuously hold momentum for more than a single game, rarely extending hot scoring streaks more than one or two games. He also had a major issue with turnovers, something that severely hindered his ability to burst into the superstar range. His decision-making at times is far and away his most suspect aspect of his game, and takes away from everything else he does well.

So where can Dez Wells, the mercurial guard/forward, go from here? For that, I always look at statistical measures to get a gauge on players potential. But in this case, with a guy like Dez Wells, it’s important to take into account style of play. There are plenty of 6’5ish guys who weigh around 220, but there aren’t many who have the rare combination of explosiveness, speed, and athleticism that Wells has. You could look at a guy like P.J. Hairston, who has the same measurables as Wells, and yet they are nowhere near the same player (with P.J. being a far superior shooter but way less athletic.) Wells is a dunker-slasher with a mix of some great court vision and defensive prowess.

Who does Dez Wells remind me of? I would get killed for even suggesting this by a lot of people in the know, but I’m going to say it anyway: Vince Carter. Yeah, it just sounds ridiculous without any perspective. A potential Hall of Fame shooting guard who once gained comparisons to Michael Jordan because of his high-flying dunking and outrageous aggressiveness versus a guy who couldn’t even get his team to the tournament. It’s here where I have to again stress perspective when considering this comparison.

When we think of Vince Carter, we think of Vinsanity. We think of Shawn Bradley getting dunked on in the Olympics. We think of those monster jams in the NBA and his pouting with the Toronto Raptors. But the casual fan doesn’t think of Vince Carter as a sophomore in college; a young, 20 year old without a defined game just yet. It took years to become the player Vince Carter’s reputation suggests, but it had to start somewhere. So let’s start with Carter’s freshman and sophomore year in college with the North Carolina Tar Heels, and see if some of the statistics match up with Wells output from last season (and the season prior.)

Dez Wells per game totals:

Vince Carter UNC per game totals freshman and sophomore year:

Now looking at Wells’ first year in comparison to Carter’s statistically, they are tougher to compare. Wells played ten more minutes per game on a very talented Xavier team, and while his role was limited, he had logged a lot more minutes at that point in his career. Carter, meanwhile, was playing behind both Jeff McInnis and Antawn Jamison on the court at both the guard and forward positions. While Carter logged a good amount of minutes, he wasn’t nearly as large a role player for the Tar Heels.

But the the similarities are still present even with the difference in minutes. Look at the shooting percentages, which are almost identical at 50% to 49%. The three point attempts and percentages are nearly the same. Steals? The same. Assists? The same. Turnovers? You guessed it. Dez Wells averaged about two more points than Carter, but he played a lot more minutes. His rebounding numbers also reflected that, as did his trips to the line. To that point in their career, they are similar enough to merit comparisons.

When you look at their sophomore seasons as a whole, that’s when the comparisons start to stick. With both players averaging the same amount of minutes, the end result is that the two are almost identical to one another. Wells and Carter both shot 52% from the floor, 33% from three point range, averaged around the same amount of rebounds (4.9 for Wells, 4.5 for Carter), and even the same amount of points per game (13.1 to 13.0 in favor of Wells.) Still, at this point I’m entirely unconvinced that Dez Wells can ever become Vince Carter. Yes, they play similarly in that their games are predicated on dunking and spotty deep shooting, but it’s not enough evidence for me to christen Wells with the Vinsanity label.

I decided to dig deeper and look at some slightly more advanced statistics, to truly separate these two players who appear to be on incredibly similar routes of production increase. I used Statsheet.com to compare both their sophomore season’s here (I cannot provide you with an image as it won’t embed, but you can open another tab and follow along using that link.) By doing this, I was able to start to see slight differences between the two players, but also even more similarities.

For one, Dez Wells is not nearly as offensively efficient as Vince Carter at the same age. Carter finished the season with an offensive rating (the equation is (points produced/possessions) x 100) of 125, whereas Wells had a big dip with 105.7. That suggests Carter is much more efficient than Wells at scoring, but it doesn’t make sense why. Vince Carter wasn’t a jump shooter at all at this stage in his career, and all his shots came almost entirely off dunks, athletic layups, and the occasional long two/three pointer. Sound familiar? It’s Dez Wells. They should match up in efficiency with shots like those, but they don’t. That’s because the real game-changer was in their free throw percentages and turnovers.

While Dez Wells is considerably better than Carter at getting to the free throw line (his FT rate was 36.3 to Carter’s 31.6), Vince Carter hit 75% of them. Wells barely connected on 70% of his free throws, and that, realistically, is the biggest difference between the two. Connecting on free throws is what differentiates super-efficient scorers from efficient scorers. Those 5 percentage points are enough to skew the scales in favor of Carter, even if Wells managed to get to the line more. But not 25 whole points.

That’s where the turnover rate comes in. Wells was one of the worst ball-handlers in the ACC last season, and it’s what absolutely killed his efficiency numbers. Whereas Carter turned the ball over on 14.4% of his possessions, Wells turned it over 23.8% of his possessions. Their total turnovers were massive with Carter only having 47 (very few) to Wells 108. While they may score in the same manner and at the same rate, they do not play the same game. Vince Carter is simply hyper-efficient as a sophomore, because he doesn’t turn the ball over.

Still, the two are very similar (albeit slightly different) players in a number of other categories. Their true shooting percentages are near identical at 60.9% for Carter and 58.4% from Wells (again, that’s where FT% comes in). Wells and Carter are both considered great rebounders, and yet they do it in different manners. Wells is far superior on the defensive glass, nabbing 153 total DREB to Carter’s 94, but Carter is a good amount better on the offensive glass with 58 total OREB to Wells 33. Offensive rebounds tend to generate putbacks and points, and that could also lead back to efficiency since those are high percentage shots.

Wells may be a slightly better rebounder, but he is definitely a better, more willing passer. His assist totals (113 to 83 total AST) and assist percentages (22%  to 16%) are a fair amount higher than Carter’s. What’s positive about that number is that passing players who take risks with the ball early in their career tend to end up being very good passers in the future. That applies mostly to point guards, but it’s also relatively true to swingmen as well. Vince Carter was a playmaker, and i’m saying now that Wells could be even better.

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So where will Wells end up next year? Honestly he’s on a trajectory to be very similar to Vince Carter:

As you can see from the table, Vince Carter just got a lot better at what he did best, which was being a good rebounder and an even more efficient scorer. 59.1% from the floor for a guard, forward, and even center is an amazingly good percentage. Carter upped his three point percentage significantly, which made him even more lethal as a scorer considering no one could guard him athletically.

For Dez Wells, in many ways, he’s on the right track to becoming college Carter. Wells absolutely has to shore up his turnover numbers, and I definitely think he can do that. His turnovers are a result of having the ball in his hands far too often, and with a real point guard that number is almost guaranteed to go down. If he can return to his freshman year turnover numbers (with the same amount of minutes), he’s actually already done.

Now the three point shooting is the biggest thing Part B. Can Wells improve his three point shot? That’s something that I can’t project, since it’s really just indicative of practice and effort levels. If Wells wants to up his percentages drastically, he can. 33% to 41% isn’t unfathomable; instead of 3 of 9, he’s 4 of 10. It’s just one more shot, but it’s all up to him.

With Wells athleticism and high-flying ability, combined with an NBA-ready ability to finish around the rim, Wells potential is limitless. When I compare him to Vince Carter, I compare him to not Vinsanity. I’m talking about college Carter, who, as you can see, is actually pretty damn similar to Dez Wells. When you consider how amazing Wells was during the latter part of the year, when his team needed him, I can get the comparison. When Dez Wells is playing at his best, he is almost always the best player on the court. It’s a matter of upping that consistency, and that takes practice.