Mar 2, 2013; Winston Salem, NC, USA; Maryland Terrapins forward Charles Mitchell (0) talks with head coach Mark Turgeon during the first half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

I know harking into the past isn’t something people want to hear often, but in this instance, I think it’s a necessity. As the great Billy Shakespeare once said, “What is past is prologue.” That probably applies here when we’re trying to figure out how the Terrapins can pull off an upset against the Tar Heels tonight. Looking back at previous upsets of North Carolina at the hands of Maryland helps give us a picture of the three things necessary to win.

The first one is perhaps the easiest of the bunch: guard the perimeter very, very well. It sounds simple because it is, in essence, an easy concept to grasp. North Carolina has a propensity to shoot three pointers, for better or worse. On nights when they’re on fire, they are an almost impossibly difficult team to beat because of how well they move the ball around the perimeter. It’s a Roy Williams brand of basketball that involves finding the open shooter on every possession. What the Terrapins need to do, and what they are capable of doing, is fight through screens and, at the very least, get a hand in the shooter’s face on every perimeter shot.

Since 2008, Maryland has gone 4-4 against North Carolina. When you take away this year and the three losses last season, the Terrapins are actually 4-0 against North Carolina since 2008. While Mark Turgeon hasn’t fared so well against Roy Williams, Gary Williams thrived because his teams focused on perimeter defense. In each of those four wins, North Carolina never shot over 33% from long range, and, like most of Roy’s teams, took a lot of midrange jumpers. When they don’t shoot well, there isn’t a low post go-to game to fall back on. From Wayne Ellington to Marcus Ginyard/Danny Green to Reggie Bullock, North Carolina has guys who like to shoot jumpers. Maryland has to contest those, so they get out of their comfort zone and into the lane where Alex Len lies.

North Carolina will have the option of going down low to McAdoo, but he is their only low post scoring option. He certainly presents matchup problems with his athleticism, but the Terrapins can make his life difficult by fouling him every time he gets the ball down low, and playing incredibly sound on-ball defense while bringing in help defenders. McAdoo isn’t known for his ability to find the open man, so Maryland can bring another man in to help if/when he does get by Shaq Cleare, James Padgett, Alex Len, or Charles Mitchell. Contest every shot, and Maryland starts the game off right.

The second weapon to beating North Carolina? Turn the game into nothing but half-court sets and hold onto the ball for your dear life. It’s no secret that the Tar Heels love to get out and run, which is why they are consistently one of the highest scoring teams in the nation year after year. Their transition game is typically second to none, and they capitalize on half-court turnovers to start 10-0 runs and other things of that ilk. The last game against Maryland, North Carolina attacked Maryland’s ball handlers early which forced turnovers at midcourt, and it led to numerous runs that the Terrapins couldn’t bounce back from.

This game, Maryland has to do largely the same thing they did last game, only a lot less sloppy when it comes to turning the ball over. North Carolina is going to get their 65-75 shots per game, but the Terrapins have to make them work for it. That means slowly bringing the ball up court, running down that shot clock to at least 15 seconds, and then getting back on defense ASAP. It isn’t as important that they win the rebounding battle as much as it is imperative that they slow down the breakneck pace that Roy Williams likes to play at.

In fact, in every game the Terrapins won against North Carolina over the past five years, they have never won the rebounding battle. On the contrary, they usually lose it by a wide margin. By controlling the tempo and not necessarily fighting for tough offensive rebounds, Maryland has been able to get back and limit the amount of transition baskets North Carolina is capable of scoring. It’s a counter-intuitive strategy for any basketball team, but it actually works in some cases (this being one of them.)

Finally, and perhaps the toughest thing for the Terrapins to do, is that they have to execute incredibly well. It’s a near-certainty that the Terrapins with Mark Turgeon at the helm are going to play a tough brand of defensive basketball. But what isn’t certain is how well they are going to execute. Well, looking back, the biggest difference between past wins and recent season’s losses has been the execution of the offense.

In each of Maryland’s wins against North Carolina, they have shot 45% or better from the field, and at least 40% from long distance and 80% from the charity stripe. Those are, of course, lofty numbers and very difficult to attain, but it is what is required to beat a team that Roy Williams coaches. Only the very best efforts come out victors against his teams, and it’s why he’s one of the top five winningest coaches in college basketball history. But the way to beat his teams is pretty clear-cut; limit the amount of bad shots you take, and capitalize on every opportunity.

That means Nick Faust is going to have to reign in some of the errant jumpers he has a sweet-tooth for. It means that Pe’Shon Howard is going to have to drive into the lane rather than settle for the jumper. It means that Jake Layman has to connect on his wide open three point attempts that he so often gets. It means that Charles Mitchell has to pass out of close layups rather than shoot it every time he gets the ball. And finally, it means that Alex Len has to use his height to his advantage, and get his footing in the post early for easy lay-ins. It’s a tall order, but it’s what has to happen if the Terrapins hope to beat North Carolina.

Do these three things, and I can guarantee a Maryland victory. While it may seem hopeless, it isn’t. And if history has told us anything, it’s that beating a Roy Williams team is entirely doable; in fact, it’s a 50/50 shot. Hopefully Mark Turgeon looks into the past for some guidance, as much as he may hate to do so.

Jan 19, 2013; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mark Turgeon reacts in the second half. The Tar Heels defeated the Terrapins 62-52 at the Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

A few days removed from being embarrassed in Chapel Hill, I’ve got only a few thoughts  on the matter before we move forward.

1.) If you turn the ball over, you’re going to have a bad time

To start, the trend that has continued all season long (the turnover issue) was clearly present against North Carolina, to the tune of 21. You would be hard pressed to find any team in the nation capable of overcoming such carelessness with the basketball. If five of your first six possessions end up with a turnover, you can pretty much expect to be in a hole for the rest of the game, especially when you consider that Reggie Bullock was channeling his inner-Jordan.

How do you solve it? That’s a good question. Pe’Shon Howard may have officially lost his position in the rotation with how poorly he has been playing as of late. His seven turnovers in just 14 minutes of play was hard to watch for a guy who, at the start of the season, was incredibly careful with the ball and a fantastic floor manager. Dez Wells, for as great as he has been, still makes decisions with the ball that make you say “Oof.” The Terrapins really just need to get back to basics, and practice basic, fundamental passing drills. Other than that I really have no answers.

2.) This team cannot shoot the basketball well, at all.

The Terrapins are severely gimped on the offensive end at times. They are, put simply, Jekyll & Hyde, and this is one trend that won’t be changing any time soon. In the first half, thanks to a lot of turnovers and bad shooting, the Terrapins only scored 20 points (hitting 9 shots and missing 19). In the second half, they were significantly better at scoring, but that isn’t to say the offense looked particularly deadly, either.

The Terrapins just turned the ball over fewer times in the second half, which is really the only reason they looked that much better. Shooting 39% from the floor isn’t a recipe for success, and neither is going 1-of-15 from long range. The team’s “sharp shooters” Logan Aaronhalt, Seth Allen, and Jake Layman, can’t really shoot all that well. Aaronhalt in particular is unfortunately getting exposed as a streaky three ball shooter.

In Albany, Aaronhalt’s best mark from long range on a season was 37%, which is nothing at all to scoff at. At Maryland, he’s hitting 48% of his three point shots, which makes him appear virtually unstoppable from deep. But statistically I look for his mark to drop off significantly to around his career averages. That’s unfortunate not only because all he does is shoot three pointers, but also because our best three point specialist is just “pretty good” and not “unstoppable” from deep.

3.) The defense is still, well, really good.

The Maryland Terrapins are still a very good defensive team, and that is one of the major things they can build upon as the season continues. No matter how putrid the offense gets at times, on the defensive end the Terrapins are still one of the best in the country. The rotations are fantastic, and even though athletic wing/hybrids like James McAdoo are hard for the Maryland bigs to stop, they still manage to do enough to slow them down.

They faced a team with fantastic ball movement and deadly three point shooters in North Carolina, and still were able to hold them to poor averages (35% from the floor, 29% from deep). Maintaining those averages on a game-by-game basis will most certainly allow Maryland an opportunity to win almost every game they play in. Now if only that offense would get on board…

Jan 19, 2013; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Maryland Terrapins guard Seth Allen (4) knocks the ball away from North Carolina Tar Heels forward Reggie Bullock (35) in the first half at the Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The script for the Maryland Terrapins basketball game was essentially written in the first 6 possessions of the game. The Terps turned the ball over a whopping 22 times, including five of their first six times down the court, and had taken themselves out of contention by the first half. The final score ended up being 62-52, but it wasn’t that close in reality.

While the Terrapins were busy taking a loaded shotgun to their teammates feet, Reggie Bullock was preoccupied scoring ten of the North Carolina Tar Heels first 12 points. Bullock came into the year averaging 14 points per contest, but he finished the first half with 21 points, missing only two shots. The Tar Heels really only needed Bullock in the first half when they took a near insurmountable 42-20 lead.

The Terrapins, meanwhile, simply couldn’t get anything going because of their inability to protect the basketball. Fifteen first half turnovers make trying to win a game quite difficult, but that’s exactly what Maryland accomplished. Pe’Shon Howard may have taken a dip in a pool of butter, because his first half stat-line (and really the last time he played significant minutes) was 0 points and 5 turnovers. The only Terrapin who really had it going in the first half was Dez Wells, who had eight of the Terrapins first 20 points. Unfortunately he was also part of the problem with 4 turnovers in the first half as well, seemingly trying to take out the scorers table on one errant pass.

After that, it was simply too difficult a lead to overcome for the Terrapins, despite their somewhat effective second half. North Carolina’s Bullock went cold in the second half, but that was when James Michael McAdoo, the team’s leading scorer, filled in the dirty work with some nice drives to the basket and just enough slams to finish off Maryland. McAdoo’s athletcism gave the Maryland big men trouble, and he finished the game with 19 points and 11 rebounds (of which five were offensive) by blowing by Len and Mitchell.

As stated before, the Terrapins really did give a good effort in the second half. Dez Wells continued his solid offensive play with 13 more points in the second half, and Alex Len finally came alive with some offensive assertiveness to the tune of six second half points. At one point, the Terrapins even cut the lead to 12 at 55-43 with just 6:47 to go in the game and 11 (60-49) with around 3:30 to go. During both runs, North Carolina simply didn’t make enough mistakes and got enough solid bounces to maintain their lead. A McAdoo block on Charles Mitchell stopped the first run, and a drawn foul and an offensive rebound halted the latter.

On the Carolina end, it was truly only Bullock and McAdoo who did much of anything, as no other player finished in double figures on the afternoon. they shot under 40% from the field, and even turned the ball over 14 times. They were outscored 32-20 in the second half, but their first 20 minutes of play were all that were required to win.

Outside of Len and Wells, not many Terrapins did much of anything. Seth Allen had some decent play in the second half, finishing with four points, six rebounds, and three steals. Charles Mitchell was solid, but not great, with five points and eleven rebounds. The Terrapins as a team managed to outrebound North Carolina on the night, 38 to 33, but the turnover issue (they finished with 22 total) negated almost all their efforts.

The Terrapins will get a chance to right the ship January 22nd when they take on the Boston College Eagles at home. Unfortunately, if they turn the ball over as fervently as they did against North Carolina, they could play high school teams and take a loss.

Jan 16, 2013; College Park, MD, USA; Maryland Terrapins center Shaquille Cleare (44) drives to the basket against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at the Comcast Center. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Editor’s Note: This article was written by staff writer Chris Bengel, resident Terrapin hoops buff. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @DurtyPuckHead for increasingly awesome Maryland factoids.

The Teams: Maryland Terrapins (14-3) vs North Carolina Tar Heels (11-5)

The Time: 12 pm ET

The Location: Dean E. Smith Center. Chapel Hill, NC

TV/Radio: ESPN, WatchESPN, 105.7 FM

The Backstory: The Maryland Terrapins are coming off their biggest upset in nearly two seasons as they knocked off #14 North Carolina State on Wednesday night. It was a game that the Terrapins needed due to their struggles in back-to-back losses to Florida State and Miami. The offense continued its struggles and missed a good amount of easy shots, but they did continue to play superb defense and held one of the top scoring offenses in the country to under 30-percent shooting. This win should do wonders for the confidence of a young team that may have grown up a little bit after such a win.

On the other hand, North Carolina started off ACC play by dropping decisions to Virginia and Miami. However, the Tar Heels rebounded with a much-needed win over Florida State last Saturday. Guard P.J. Hairston scored 23 points on 9-of-14 shooting for North Carolina. Highly-touted big man James Michael McAdoo also had a strong game as he netted 14 points and grabbed eight rebounds for the Tar Heels. They’ve been all over the place as of late and don’t really have that go-to scorer. It seems to be a different guy every night.

Keys to the game

1.) Control the boards

Maryland and North Carolina are two of the top three rebounding teams in the country. The Terrapins rank second (43.2 rpg) while the Tar Heels rank third (43.2 rpg). They are that close. Both squads have absolute trees down low. Maryland boasts the most-improved player and potential top-five NBA draft pick Alex Len. When the Ukrainian center is on, it’s hard to stop him. Len is currently averaging 13.5 ppg and 8.1 rpg and is coming off a phenomenal game against the Wolfpack. Len scored the last six points in the Terrapins victory and has scored in double figures in all four ACC contests. Freshman Shaquille Cleare also had a solid game in his start at center against NC State. The Houston native scored eight points and pulled down five boards while looking very comfortable in the post and didn’t appear rattled by the pressure.

On the contrary, North Carolina has their own big man to boast about. Sophomore forward James Michael McAdoo is the Tar Heels’ leading scorer (14.4 ppg) and rebounder (8.1 rpg). McAdoo has scored in double figures in all but one game this season and is North Carolina’s number-one option in the post. The Norfolk native can do it all on the offensive end but isn’t quite the shot-blocker that Len is. McAdoo only has three blocks on the year as opposed to Len’s 36 (2.1 bpg).

2.) Find a groove on the offensive end

The Terrapins are only shooting 38.6-percent in four ACC games this season. That average doesn’t quite put Maryland’s shooting woes in perspective because they shot 51.7-percent against Virginia Tech in the ACC opener. The Terrapins got to a fast start against NC State and jumped out to an 8-0 lead but eventually cooled off. They shot 34.4-percent (21-of-61 from the field) and an abysmal 16.7-percent (3-of-18) from three-point range. The Terrapins need to be patient and take better shots when those opportunities present themselves.

As coach Mark Turgeon alluded to after his team’s win over NC State, Maryland has been strong on the defensive end and has been guarding all year. The Terrapins need to trust each other and make sure they don’t hesitate when a good shot presents itself. Pe’Shon Howard was one of the many players that struggled shooting the ball on Wednesday night. Howard shot 3-of-9 from the field and missed three of four three-point attempts. The junior guard seemed to hesitate when he had an open shot from three-point range. Howard is mainly depended on to be a distributor on offense and a game manager. Any offense that Howard gives Maryland is a bonus but he needs to reestablish his confidence.

UPDATE:
According to ESPN college basketball writer Eamonn Brennan (@eamonnbrennan) UNC guard Leslie McDonald is doubtful for tomorrow’s matchup with the Maryland Terrapins. McDonald has already missed two games this week with a sore right knee and Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams stated today when questioned on McDonald’s status “I am more doubtful about Leslie than I was earlier in the week,”. McDonald averages 8.4 PPG in 17.9 minutes per contest for the Tar Heels.

Jan 12, 2013; Tallahassee, FL, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams talks to his players during the first half of the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Most years, heading to Dean E. Smith Center meant the Maryland Terrapins were going to get served up a loss. Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams almost assures that by his mere presence on the sidelines; his .7977 win percentage is 7th all-time amongst college coaches. That number is higher than Dean Smith, higher than Mike Krzyzewski, higher than John Calipari, and a whole score of other legendary college coaches. Any time you take the court against Carolina, and especially in their own dojo, you get the feeling that a win is simply unrealistic.

Most years, that is the case. North Carolina teams are typified by a few key juniors and seniors, and a few younger, highly-touted recruits who change the pace of the game. Last year, Tyler Zeller and John Henson were those older players, Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall were the sophomore stars. They had experience and skill, and neither team had to rely on lots of youth to carry them to success. That combination of older leadership and youthful ambition typically gives UNC a very dangerous punch.

This year, that aura of superiority simply feels different. Of the Tar Heels top five scorers, three are either freshmen or sophomores, two are juniors, and there are no seniors. The only senior that North Carolina relies on is Dexter Strickland, a guy who has been decent this year, but also has a freshman breathing down his back in Marcus Paige. Two of their top three scorers are sophomores who came off the bench the year prior in Reggie Bullock and James Michael McAdoo. No one on their team has ever been a go-to option in college basketball during their career.

Still, fans tend to expect the same amount of superiority and success that comes with the North Carolina brand year-in and year-out. These young players are expected to take the torch and carry it directly into the NCAA tournament, just as prior teams have done for eight of the past nine seasons.

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The Maryland Terrapins are equal parts intrigue as they are frustration. Bouts of veteran, sound, basketball performances spliced with youthful endeavors that often fall flat on their face. Of their five leading scorers, only James Padgett is a senior. The rest? Sophomores or freshmen. Eight of their nine leading scorers are sophomores or freshmen. Even at Kentucky, that would be considered a terribly youthful platoon to go to battle with.

There is a plethora of talent present all over the roster. Freshmen like Shaquille Cleare and Charles Mitchell who have come in and played like old men. Young guards like Nick Faust and Seth Allen who rise to the occasion, hitting shots when required and spurring runs like older players with ice in their veins tend to do. Of course, there’s that guy Alex Len, who is supposed to eventually become some NBA star. With all that talent, there is a lot of hope for massive amounts of success that have eluded the Terrapins over the past three seasons.

Head coach Mark Turgeon has been bringing in players who are able to compete immediately, and urge forward a new era of Maryland dominance; he wants these Terrapins to become relevant on a national level once again. The expectations are high because he has set the bar high, and the fans now expect the bar to remain at that level during his tenure. Even if the team is young, and prone to young mistakes.

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North Carolina is currently 11-5, and only 1-2 in the ACC this season. They have dropped the rare game at home against someone not named Duke (it was Miami), and only narrowly beat the other Florida team. The Tar Heels got blown out by then #1 Indiana 83-59, but took it to #20 UNLV at home. When they’re on, they’re on fire. When they’re off, they simply don’t show up.

Sophomore guard P.J. Hairston is perhaps their most explosive scorer. He more recently dropped a career-high 23 points against Florida State, propelling them to a victory by way of his incredible shooting touch. The two games prior? An eight point performance against Virginia, and a five point dud against Miami at home that left fans wondering if he just wasn’t cut out for some of the rough and tough ACC games.

Sound familiar?

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The Maryland Terrapins are 14-3, and 2-2 in ACC play. Comcast Center, one of the toughest venues to play in, was recently home to a loss against an inconsistent Florida State team.  It was also home to a one point, near-buzzer beater victory to #14 North Carolina State in which Alex Len stamped his name in the Maryland book of lore. A 51% from the field, 43% from deep, 24-point blowout victory over Virginia Tech was sandwiched in between two games in which the Terrapins didn’t even break 60 points.

Perhaps their most effective scorer when he’s on fire, Dez Wells almost led the Terrapins back from the brink of death against Miami with an 18 point, 5 rebound performance. The next game against North Carolina State? Wells had four points on only 2-of-10 shooting and was largely ineffective most of the game. Terrapins fans wonder every game which Dez will show up: the Wells that can make teams like Stony Brook and George Mason miserable or the Wells that can make life easy for teams like NC State or Florida State?

Stop me if you’ve heard this story before.

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These two maddeningly inconsistent but talent and promise-laden rosters take on one another tomorrow in North Carolina. Both teams are fresh off a much-needed victory that halted a two-game skid in ACC play. Both teams will be looking at tape of the similar games they have played in hopes of finding a weakness. Both teams are going to be saddled with the presumption of greatness. At North Carolina it is a tradition, at Maryland it is an expectation. Home games tend to be wins for home teams and an incredible coach, but then, both of these teams are as young as they come that any prior rule of thumb is out the window.

They may have different jerseys, traditions, coaches, and players, but the Maryland Terrapins and the North Carolina Tar Heels are the same team this year.

College basketball ranking polls were released Monday, and the Maryland Terrapins have yet again drawn the short end of the stick in every single poll. Despite their eight game win streak, the voters in these polls remain unconvinced that Terrapins are worthy of cracking the top 25, much to the chagrin of Maryland fans around. These polls are subjective things and are far from a concrete science, but come on.

Having North Carolina State ranked ahead of Maryland I don’t agree with, but I slightly understand. They have had a tougher early schedule than the Terrapins and even though they lost two games, the talent level on that team is something else. They are expected to be a formidable team in the ACC and will likely turn it on at some point.

The other ACC team that beat out the Terrapins is North Carolina, though, and that’s just completely unfair. North Carolina lost to a Butler team who recently whipped up on Northwestern. If you remember, the Terrapins waxed that same team 77-57 on their court, and while I don’t believe the “we beat (Team A), (Team B) lost to (Team A), therefore we’re better than (Team B)” argument, I’m using it anyway. North Carolina can beat up on Tennessee all they want, but anyone who has seen the Terrapins and them play knows who the better team is.

And not to bash our local frenemy Georgetown, but how the heck do they get ranked ahead of Maryland (USA Today/ESPN poll) after some of the most uninspiring wins at Georgetown in recent memory? A 46-40 victory against Towson, and a 37-36 squeaker against a terrible Tennessee team? I’m failing to see what, exactly, on their win list has shown that they are a better team than the Terrapins can be considered? I think they’re good, sure, but I don’t get how they can be considered a better team than the Terrapins.

(Then again, how little do these polls mean when USA Today/ESPN has Kentucky still ranked ahead of Notre Dame even though they were completely dismantled by them just last week? Makes a lot of sense, right?)

Basically what I’m saying is that there are some definite injustices taking place with the polls. Clearly the Terrapins are doing something that is irking the voters, though what exactly I am unsure of. They blow out just about everyone they play (save for Kentucky), and even when they play terribly like they did against George Mason, they still come out with a win. It is a bogus methodology, and one that definitely disappoints fans. That being said, take these results with a grain of salt. The Terrapins will eventually be ranked once voters watch a little more basketball. The Top 25 is in continuous flux, and so the Terrapins could make it next week. Or when they finally face some ACC competition on January 5th against Virginia Tech.

Until then, continue griping.

Where do you guys think the Terrapins should be ranked?